The UK is past the worst of the Covid pandemic, but should prepare for some “possible bumps in the road”, according to the scientist who helped shape Britain’s lockdown strategy.

Prof Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London, said things were looking up as the country passed the peak of a new wave of coronavirus infections.

“I am optimistic that the bulk of the pandemic, in terms of deaths and hospitalizations, is behind us. Although we should always be prepared for possible bumps in the road,” he said, adding that any new variant – which was very likely to arise – might have a less dramatic impact than Omicron.

“The very high level of immunity in the UK population – acquired through both vaccination and infection – means that the risk of a new variant causing unmanageable levels of healthcare demand is greatly reduced,” said he declared. “Another positive is that if a new variant comes from Omicron – it’s not a certainty – there is a good chance that it will retain the reduced severity of this strain.”

Ferguson said a key development was Covid vaccines, particularly those based on mRNA technology, while important lessons had also been learned, such as the need for data to make informed decisions. “Compared to now, March 2020, we were basically blundering in the dark in terms of our actual knowledge of the extent of the infection in the country.”

Another lesson was the need to match the speed of policymaking with the speed of the virus. “This in particular means that you may have to make some decisions before you have the full gravity picture,” he said.

With the rapid spread of Omicron in the UK late last year, ministers faced a clear message from scientific advisers: to avoid potential worst-case scenarios, measures needed to be put in place quickly.

But as the UK government introduced Plan B in England, it resisted calls to go further, despite stronger measures in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Ferguson said the political position has evolved over time. “I think we’re in a different place, in terms of how policy makers think about these two years since we were in February, March 2020,” he said, adding that the change had led to more nuanced and difficult decisions.

On Wednesday, the Prime Minister announced that Plan B measures in England would be lifted as cases were now falling. But Ferguson doesn’t think that will bring Omicron back with a bang.

“Restrictions are always a trade-off between infection control and economic cost,” he said. “However, given that the number of cases is down in all regions and hospitalizations are starting to drop, I do not think that the lifting of restrictions poses a significant risk of causing a major resurgence. Although it is obvious that the trends will have to continue to be watched closely.

According to Ferguson, scientists rarely interact with politicians, with Sir Patrick Vallance and Sir Chris Whitty acting as mediators. But sometimes there have been frustrations, like in the fall of 2020 when the Alpha variant took off.

“Because then we were seeing the number of cases increasing. There was a lot of misinformation around, frankly, at that time,” he said.

Covid was evolving to become more transmissible and was not yet in a classic UK endemic disease scenario, he said. The flu mutates every year and can cause seasonal epidemics, but the immunity we’ve built up over our lifetime means it’s manageable. And, as experts have noted, endemic does not necessarily mean mild.

“[Covid] is going to become an endemic disease, which unfortunately kills people every year,” Ferguson said. But, with careful management and boosting immunity, he hoped the waves of infection would reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths – although more hospital bed capacity may be needed.

But politicians have short memories, he said, and he fears we will stop preparing for the next pandemic once the immediate shock of the coronavirus begins to fade from national consciousness.

“I’m sure for the next 10 years, pandemic preparedness will be a top priority for governments, for research funders around the world,” Ferguson said. “What worries me is in 15 or 20 years, will this memory fade? This is the real risk. »