Dynasty Fantasy Football Top 150 and Trade Chart: Four candidates for sale ahead of 2022 season
There are many ways to use consensus rankings, even as an analyst. You can use these to see who you’re an outlier on, to further rate those players, and to make sure you really want to be the high or low guy on a given player. You can also use them for the opposite purpose, to find buy and sell candidates, if you want to look at your consensus rankings. That’s the angle we’re going with today.
In what is a bit of a dead period for Fantasy Football, there’s no better time to look for trades. Today, let’s focus on four players who rank considerably higher in the Fantasy Pros Consensus Ranking than they do in my top 150 below.
Of the players who rank as first-round picks in the consensus rankings, none of them rank lower than Joe Mixon for me, at No. 21. And that’s one of the few highs in sale that contenders and rebuilders may be able to take advantage of. That’s because the two players directly behind him are Austin Ekeler and Breece Hall. I would much rather have Ekeler if I fight (I project him for an additional 39 PPR Fantasy points in 2022), and Hall fits much better into a rebuilding team.
While Mixon will be just 26 at the start of the season, like Ekeler, he is only one injury away from a big drop in value. Remember what the community thought of the Bengals running back heading into the 2021 season. It won’t take much for those feelings to return. If you’d rather trade Mixon for a wide receiver, I’d target Davante Adams as a contender and DK Metcalf as a rebuilder.
The second best-selling candidate is fellow AFC North running back Nick Chubb. He’s eight months older than Mixon, has more competition for touches and a lot more uncertainty about the situation around him. Still, he ranks 22nd in the consensus rankings, just ahead of Alvin Kamara and Jaylen Waddle, who I strongly prefer in the PPR leagues.
If Deshaun Watson is cleared to play 17 games for the Browns this season, I would expect the team’s hit rate to increase and the team’s rush rate to decrease. Unfortunately, I’m not sure the increase in success rate would translate to a massive increase in Chubb’s aim. Kareem Hunt is used more in that role, and Watson hasn’t thrown much to his running backs anyway. If Watson is suspended, Jacoby Brissett will probably start, and that’s even scarier.
The fact that Chubb will be 27 before the calendar moves to 2023 and that he doesn’t project himself into the top 12 PPR running backs, it’s impossible for me to value him that high. Based on this ranking, you should be able to turn Chubb into a 2023 first-round pick and a young wide receiver, or if you’re a contender, you could get Aaron Jones and another piece that helps in that. moment. I would be happy to do either.
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I don’t want to just pick on running backs, so let’s throw a few wide receivers into the same conversation: Tyreek Hill and Diontae Johnson. They both rank in the top 25 consensus rankings and both are currently outside of my top 40. Both have also seen their situation change drastically this offseason and this could hurt their Fantasy value at the start of the season.
For Hill, despite his recent comments, it’s mostly about the demotion of quarterback Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. Not that Hill was created by Mahomes because he was very good with Alex Smith in 2017, but he was a completely different monster with Mahomes. And its effectiveness isn’t the only thing that could be affected. The Chiefs have been one of the most assisting teams in the league for the past three seasons, while Mike McDaniel has generally run a heavier program. That could change, but we should necessarily expect the 8.6 targets per game that Hill has seen over the past four seasons, especially considering Tagovailoa’s long history with Jaylen Waddle. We’re also a year away from some community members discounting Hill because he’s 29.
Johnson probably doesn’t have to worry too much about his crater efficiency. After all, he was one of the least effective high-volume receivers in the league. But I seriously fear that without Ben Roethlisberger in the squad, the Steelers’ success rate will plummet. They’ve averaged 660 pass attempts over the past two seasons. I expect that number to be closer to 560 with Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett under center. This could be disastrous for a player whose main skill for the past two years has been winning targets.
None of Mixon, Chubb, Hill or Johnson are what I would call emergency sales. In other words, don’t give them up unless you like the return. But I would shop all four just to see if anyone in your league values them the way the consensus ranking does.
Here is my updated Dynasty trading chart and my top 150: